Will Iran become another
forever war for the USA?
History is embarrassing at
mocking the overconfident. In August, 1914, European soldiers were promised to
be home by Christmas, they were not. USA sent troops to Vietnam to combat
Communism swiftly & the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to
“stabilize the nation quickly”, those conflicts ran over a decade. In recent
times, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a 3-4 day war just like Hitler
expected Russia to be overrun by German soldiers in a few months and we know
how both of them panned out.
As the United States & Israel
prosecute their campaign against Iran dubbed Operation Epic Fury &
Operation Roaring Lion, an old question resurfaces in this age of modern
warfare: Is it the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
Operationally, it has been one
sided for the US-Israel coalition, they have reportedly destroyed a third of
Iran’s missile inventory, at least 29 launch sites have been struck and
inflicted damage to the factories producing these missiles, damaging Iran’s
nuclear infrastructure and the elimination of senior Iranian political figures
and military leaders.
But military victories and
political victories are not the same and confusing one for another is exactly
how forever wars begin. Iran’s military arsenal was intentionally decentralized
and most of their critical resources hidden deep underground. This is partly
why since the 10th day of the conflict, despite massive precision
bombing campaigns by the US & Israel, Iran has maintained a steady launch
rate of missiles and drones. It only takes one hit by a missile or drone to
shatter the sense of security. In short, if Iran retains their strike
capabilities, the strategic balance will not tilt towards either side
decisively. Has Iran been hurt militarily and economically? Yes. But have they
been broken? Far from it.
This creates a dilemma.
Escalating the conflict by destroying Iran’s South Pars gas field, attacking
oil infrastructure on Kharg Island or deploying troops to blockade the Straight
of Hormuz risks global energy crisis to unprecedented levels.
On the flipside, Iran can
retaliate against Qatar’s North Field, Saudi East West pipelines, UAE’s
Fujairah post and many more. But the more critical targets would probably be
the Gulf desalination plants which could create entire cities to become inhabitable
overnight.
The mutual deterrence is why both
sides are holding back, avoiding crossing any “red lines”. However, deterrence
is not the same as peace.
The Straight of Hormuz is the
trump card in Iran’s hand. Tehran has been clear they won’t reopen the straight
for temporary ceasefires, some in the IRGC even warning the straight shall
never return to its original position.
This is not a marginal issue, the Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint through which one fifth of the world’s crude oil flows annually. Longer it remains closed, the more fuel costs rise which in turn raises the cost of every essentials due to heavy fuel dependency of supply chains globally.
President Trump facing a midterm
election, a debt heavy economy, untamed inflation and restless public
sentiments cannot afford to let this conflict go on indefinitely, but walking
out without reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be humiliating as the US would
essentially “hand over” the straight to Iran.
The US administration touted of
leaving Iran within 2-3 weeks, but in recent times, Marco Rubio, the Secretary
of State has omitted the initial objectives of regime change and total nuclear
eradication from their objectives, potentially indicating a desire to abandon
the Iran campaign.
This stance may be politically
understandable in the short run probably even strategically wise, but
undesirable in the long run as it achieves none of the objectives if the
Iranian regime survives. They will most likely emerge more radicalized and
focused on restoring its military capacity and definitely leave this conflict
with a better idea of how to conceal it’s military infrastructure from future
American & Israeli aggression and surveillance. Worse still for the US and
Israel, their exit may bolster Russia and China’s future assistance to Iran as
they would no longer be constrained by diplomatic ambiguity.
Israel is unlikely to stand down
either, Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear the war’s goal is to
eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat, elimination of Iran’s ballistic missile
capacity and potential regime change. None of these conditions have been met.
Facing an upcoming national election and ongoing criminal charges have both
been conveniently sidelined from discussions due to the ongoing war. The
incentives for Jerusalem exiting this conflict are far fewer compared to
Washington’s incentives. American withdrawal from this conflict cannot ensure a
formal ceasefire between Jerusalem and Tehran, low intensity exchanges of fire
and proxy conflicts always retain the potential to re-ignite to a full-scale
conflict.
There was an attempt by Pakistan
to broker a ceasefire, but both the Iranian delegation and US Vice President JD
Vance left Islamabad empty handed in less than 24 hours while Israel struck
Lebanon and closed the Straight of Hormuz. Trump’s response was expected: A
full blockade of the straight.
What sets apart a forever war
from a decisive war is not really the duration, but the absence of any
possibility that all belligerents can come to a middle ground and accept peace
terms. This looks unlikely till now. The US can’t accept a closure of the Straight
of Hormuz while Iran cannot accept US terms of surrender. The resulting sunk
economic, political and human costs here are enormous which makes both sides
even more reluctant to absorb the cost of middle ground settlement.
Pandora’s boxes do not close
easily once opened, the soldiers who boarded the trains to go to the trenches
of World War 1 in 1914 learned this at a terrible cost, the question for both
sides now is, will the statesmen of 2026 learn from history or repeat it?
Written by:
Shafqat
Aziz
Barrister
(of Lincoln's Inn)
LLM
Corporate Law, NTU
Industry
& Alumni Fellow, NTU
PGDL, UWE
Bristol
LLB, BPP
University
Accredited
Civil-Commercial Mediator (ADR-ODR International)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/shafqat-aziz-29a3a5171/
First published by Counterpoint BD: The War Against Iran May Have No Exit
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